71 messages in com.googlegroups.android-challenge[android-challenge] Re: Challengemete...
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Philip08 Apr 2008 03:14 
Philip08 Apr 2008 03:18 
Incognito08 Apr 2008 13:06 
Incognito08 Apr 2008 13:10 
Peli08 Apr 2008 13:14 
Philip08 Apr 2008 13:33 
Peli08 Apr 2008 13:49 
tomgibara08 Apr 2008 14:32 
Peli08 Apr 2008 15:07 
Dan Morrill08 Apr 2008 16:44 
Incognito08 Apr 2008 16:45 
Philip08 Apr 2008 16:50 
Muthu Ramadoss08 Apr 2008 23:17 
Incognito08 Apr 2008 23:33 
Philip09 Apr 2008 01:56 
Hielko09 Apr 2008 02:43 
Peli09 Apr 2008 02:45 
Philip09 Apr 2008 02:58 
Muthu Ramadoss09 Apr 2008 03:10 
Muthu Ramadoss09 Apr 2008 03:37 
Peli09 Apr 2008 03:41 
Peli09 Apr 2008 03:43 
Philip09 Apr 2008 04:56 
Peli09 Apr 2008 05:49 
Muthu Ramadoss09 Apr 2008 05:50 
Muthu Ramadoss09 Apr 2008 06:03 
Peli09 Apr 2008 06:04 
Incognito09 Apr 2008 06:36 
Muthu Ramadoss09 Apr 2008 07:29 
John P.09 Apr 2008 09:23 
Biosopher09 Apr 2008 09:48 
Biosopher09 Apr 2008 10:20 
Peli09 Apr 2008 11:43 
Biosopher09 Apr 2008 11:51 
j09 Apr 2008 22:14 
Muthu Ramadoss09 Apr 2008 22:20 
Satyajit10 Apr 2008 06:26 
Philip10 Apr 2008 14:32 
Incognito10 Apr 2008 14:38 
Philip10 Apr 2008 14:44 
haxhaxa10 Apr 2008 14:56 
Michael Rueger10 Apr 2008 14:59 
Philip10 Apr 2008 15:02 
Incognito10 Apr 2008 15:18 
Dan Morrill10 Apr 2008 21:10 
Muthu Ramadoss11 Apr 2008 01:47 
Biosopher11 Apr 2008 08:32 
Chris11 Apr 2008 09:10 
Incognito11 Apr 2008 12:30 
nirdroid11 Apr 2008 16:36 
Peli12 Apr 2008 00:21 
cadlg15 Apr 2008 09:35 
luckydroid16 Apr 2008 23:42 
luckydroid16 Apr 2008 23:50 
Hielko17 Apr 2008 01:57 
luckydroid17 Apr 2008 09:40 
John P.17 Apr 2008 10:53 
Muthu Ramadoss17 Apr 2008 11:29 
luckydroid17 Apr 2008 13:48 
luckydroid17 Apr 2008 13:51 
Incognito17 Apr 2008 15:06 
jalopy17 Apr 2008 22:58 
Muthu Ramadoss17 Apr 2008 23:07 
Peli17 Apr 2008 23:53 
Muthu Ramadoss18 Apr 2008 04:26 
Peli18 Apr 2008 04:47 
Incognito18 Apr 2008 08:17 
j18 Apr 2008 09:03 
luckydroid18 Apr 2008 17:48 
Muthu Ramadoss18 Apr 2008 23:28 
Peli19 Apr 2008 00:11 
Subject:[android-challenge] Re: Challengemeter: DISCUSS
From:Muthu Ramadoss (muth@gmail.com)
Date:04/09/2008 05:50:10 AM
List:com.googlegroups.android-challenge

With close to 9000 developers registered in android-developers forum, say 10% will actually submit. My NEW prediction - 900.

Peli wrote:

I think the page I mentioned ( http://code.google.com/android/adc_judging.html ) was added very late in the game. I only found it recently. It carries the following date at the bottom of the page: Build m5-rc15d - 03 Apr 2008 16:19, but so do other pages that are older. To be fair, I don't know when this page was added exactly. It may have been there for a while, without me noticing it. (If someone had seen that page already a month or two ago, please let me know!)

But in case it was really only added a week or two ago, the people who wrote the page had insight into the actual number of submissions so far, and based on that it made sense to introduce a phase I that is nowhere mentioned in the original ADC terms and conditions.

It is also interesting that they did not introduce more phases (like reduce the number first to 1000 entries, then to 200, and finally to 50 - which would have indicated thousands of submissions...).

So to get back to the claim above, if one estimates 100+ submissions or 100-1000 this would be far better than the number suggested in "the most accurate submission count tool", with 300 (*) being an even closer guess for not completely trivial apps :-) At least, that is my personal guess - others may guess differently. ;-)

Peli

(*) Note: 300 ~ sqrt(100*1000) also happens to be the geometric mean for the reasonable range of 100 to 1000 submissions.

On Apr 9, 1:56 pm, Philip <phil@gmail.com> wrote:

On Apr 9, 1:41 pm, Peli <peli@googlemail.com> wrote:

The point is, if the number of submissions was 67, there was no need to preselect the first 100... (regardless of whether this is a nice number or not).

My point was that the number 100 was picked not based on any preliminary estimates or dynamics of the submission process.

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