Your trace does not indicate which command goes with which session. There
are clearly multiple logons here, but without identifying which command
with which session, it's useless.
For me it's pretty clear when i look at the trace.
Outlook logs in, opens the Inbox. I can see no LOGOUT command which
terminates this session. (until the end of the trace when i close Outlook).
Outlook logs in again, checks for new mail and then a LOGOUT immediately
The commands sent to change the status of the message is sent without any
preceeding LOGIN command, which tells me it's beeing sent in the session
already active. I can see no other possibility. Can you?